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  • Nicholas Grenier

Final Round: T1 results are out; T2 is scheduled for MONDAY, AUGUST 2ND

T1 results are out and should be in your inbox. Please let me know if you see any problems at games2010@holf.org. I will be verifying that all teams stayed within their reinforcement budgets tonight.

While battle plans in the last round appeared to be pretty conservative as a general rule, the game strategies this round appear to be really bold this time around. Many teams have pushed hard at opposing cities right from the start, and we may even have a match end as early as T2.

Chance of capture

The formula for the chance that you get captured when fleeing a lost naval battle is:

Your rigging damage times 8% plus
Your hull damage times 2% minus
Average rigging damage of the enemy fleet times 4% plus
25% if the battle is at close quarters.

So let's take as typical a case of 2 hull damage and the enemy fleet has 2 rigging damage
on average. Then your chance of being captured, based on your rigging damage, is:

Rigging damage: chance at range, chance in close quarters
0: -4%, 21%
1: 4%, 29%
2: 12%, 37%
3: 20%, 45%
4: 28%, 53%
5: 36%, 61%

Squares in evade mode?

I have discovered during the Spring Games that if you contact an infantry unit in evade mode with cavalry and they successfully form square they fight at full strength, not reduced strength from being in evade mode.

To me this doesn't make a lot of sense.

My understanding of evade is that a small fraction of the unit is standing and fighting in order to cover the retreat of the rest. So if only 10% of the force is involved in the fight, they should form an itty bitty square and still be subject to the strength reduction, right?

Experiment on naval combat results

I decided that, before messing with the PATE combat formulas, I'd better lay down a baseline for what the results are now, so I can tell how much I change them. Accordingly, I set up code so that I could run 48 identical battles at once, and did it twice so that I got 96 battles for each scenario. I used 4 different scenarios: 1 SL vs 1 SL, 6 SLs vs. 6 SLs, 6 SLs vs. 1 SL with the lone SL to windward, and 6 vs 1 with the lone SL to leeward.

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