Chance of capture
The formula for the chance that you get captured when fleeing a lost naval battle is:
Your rigging damage times 8% plus
Your hull damage times 2% minus
Average rigging damage of the enemy fleet times 4% plus
25% if the battle is at close quarters.
So let's take as typical a case of 2 hull damage and the enemy fleet has 2 rigging damage
on average. Then your chance of being captured, based on your rigging damage, is:
Rigging damage: chance at range, chance in close quarters
0: -4%, 21%
1: 4%, 29%
2: 12%, 37%
3: 20%, 45%
4: 28%, 53%
5: 36%, 61%
It is clear that this formula needs some work. I think it should probably depend on rigging damage squared, so that the chance will be basically flat in the 0,1,2 range then rise sharply. Also I think maybe close quarters should have a multiplicative, not additive, effect; not sure about that. Also, Nick's suggestion is that the capture chance should depend on the least-damaged enemy ship, not the average damage, since the least-damaged one is the one that's going to catch you. I have two concerns about that; the first is that it may not be the least-damaged one that sails after you, if some other not-too-damaged ship starts chasing you first, and the second is that since one ship can't chase four or five different prizes, it has to be, not the least-damaged ship, but the least-damaged ship that hasn't chased a prize yet. That's a code complexity which may not be all that easy to handle. The principle Nick proposes is correct; the question is what it's worth trying to do.
Revisions underway; comments welcome.
Steve
Who's new
- joequ1oeil
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- rkimler
Revised formula for captures
The revised formula is this. Basic change is:
Your rigging damage square times 2% (so, either 0%, 2%, 8%, 18%, 32%, or 50%) plus
Your hull damage times 2% minus
Average enemy rigging damage times 4% plus
Fraction of ships in the battle that are hostile times 40%
Minus 20%
If the battle is at close quarters, multiply the base chance by 1.5 and add 10%.
I have worked out the chances now under three scenarios: enemy ship fraction is 60% (that is, you are outnumbered 3 to 2), is 80% (you are outnumbered 4 to 1) and 40% (you outnumber him 3 to 2 but you lost anyway - stuff happens). I would expect the 60% and 80% to be fairly typical, and the 40% an outlier case but it will come up occasionally. The three scenarios are otherwise comparable to the one in the original post, so you can see what the differences are. The new chances are:
Ship fraction of 60%: fleeing side outnumbered 3 to 2
Rigging damage: chance at range, chance in close quarters
0: 0%, 10%
1: 2%, 13%
2: 8%, 22%
3: 18%, 37%
4: 32%, 58%
5: 50%, 85%
Ship fraction of 80%: fleeing side outnumbered 4 to 1
Rigging damage: chance at range, chance in close quarters
0: 8%, 22%
1: 10%, 25%
2: 16%, 34%
3: 26%, 49%
4: 40%, 70%
5: 58%, 97%
Ship fraction of 40%: fleeing side is bigger 3 to 2
Rigging damage: chance at range, chance in close quarters
0: -8%, -2%
1: -6%, 1%
2: 0%, 10%
3: 10%, 25%
4: 24%, 46%
5: 42%, 73%
Those look a lot better to me. At range, you're very unlikely to get captured if rigging damage is 2 or less, a respectable chance if rigging damage is 4 or 5, it gets higher when the odds are longer against you but not enormously so. At close range there is some chance to get captured even if you are only 0 or 1 damage (you get boarded, for instance) unless you outnumber the opponent in which case your lightly damaged ships are all but certain to get away. However, 4 and 5 damage ships are pretty likely to get captured and very likely when outnumbered 4 to 1.
I will go with that for now, but can make further changes if commentary suggests them.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Orderly retreat?
Steve,
The problem that I have with the way captures work is that it is working under the assumptions that the defeated ships are routing in disorder and can each be picked off one by one. I'm pretty sure that wasn't the usual situation, at least in major SOL battles.
It seems like it would be more appropriate for small frigate engagements, where one side is trying to get away and the other is chasing them down.
We I think need something more like how it is in GITM where you can fall back, retreat, rout and so forth based on the combat outcome.
-nick
scope of revisions
Nick may be right about needing more complex options (although he may not be) but such changes are beyond the scope of what I am going to do at this time.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Actually...
One thing I could do fairly easily is create a situation where neither side sails away after the battle is over. They drift apart, the turn ends, and at the start of next turn they're still facing each other and can decide what to do again. (The wind may have shifted, of course.) There would still be some chance to capture a highly damaged ship but it would be much less than if one side was fleeing. This would give rise to something like a two-day naval battle. My only concern is that I can't think of any examples like that except maybe Glorious First (although perhaps that's the one Nick is thinking of?)
My sense is that while that wouldn't do everything Nick would like done, it would at least create the possibility of an indecisive battle which I think is the heart of what he's proposing.
Comments?
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Perfect two turn example
Given the intentional hands off approach of PATE combat, i think it can be taken that the combat reflects the entire tactical situation, regardless if it lasted one day or two days as the rules currently stand.
What Steve's suggestion would replicate is the type of situation represented by battles such as Algeciras Bay in 1801, where the two sides fought a battle in the Gibraltar coastal waters, retired to opposite sides of the bay (still both in the coastal waters in NWOL terms) and then had another go at it a week later.
As a side note (and speaking to the quality of the Spanish navy) the Spanish managed to sink two of their 1st rate ships in a massive friendly fire incident during the 2nd part of this battle. Not that we need rules for this, but it is an interesting anecdote.
-nick
Also
I take Jim Voege's comments to mean that he thinks that your chance of being caught should also depend on the overall odds in the battle. That is, if you are fighting 1 against 1, your chance of evading your 1 opponent should be much better than if you are fighting 1 against 6 and you have to get away from 6 pursuers. I do not entirely agree because ships sail at more or less the same speed and if you can get away from 1 you can probably get away from all 6. But not entirely certainly, so I think there should be an effect, just not as dramatic as I think Jim V wanted. Also, if having additional ships chasing you does matter, it probably matters because with more enemy ships around, it is more likely that one is in the right position, relative to the wind, to block your escape. I think this might matter only in battles at close quarters, where the ships get mixed in and there might be enemy ships in several different directions when you flee. In a battle at range, the enemy ships will all be on more or less the same bearing and it won't be the case that one particular one is in the right place to cut off your escape.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS