naval combat changes
Two new options planned:
1) In addition to the existing three combat options (Evade, Accept, Engage) there will be a fourth (Quick Engage). Selecting this side means that you are trying to sail past the enemy fleet and accepting an engagement in the process, but you break it off as quickly as you can. Ships selecting this option will do very limited damage to the enemy but take somewhat less damage themselves. Their side's chance to win will be reduced in a way that isn't 100% clear yet but will be substantial to the point of guaranteeing defeat if all ships on one side do it (we do have to consider cases where most, but not all, ships on one side select this option and a few, but not none, on the other side, do too.) This option will be used primarily to sail into and out of blockaded harbors and run through the blockaders. It should be basically useless in the open sea, where Evade would always be better. The difference will be that, in a port, Evade would force you to return to where you started, whereas Quick Engage would give you a chance (not a certainty) to pass the enemy fleet.
2) A choice of retreat direction. If at sea, this would let you retreat to open sea or to a port's coastal waters; if in coastal waters, this would let you choose whether to retreat back into the harbor or to open sea. In all cases you would not be guaranteed success, and you would have a higher chance of being captured than if you accepted any retreat direction you could get.
These will have to interact in some way; exactly how isn't quite clear yet.
Also, per Jim Voege's suggestion, I will change battle so that, instead of the side with the ship highest to windward getting the windward side, the side with the ship farthest to leeward gets the leeward side. I view this change as small but desirable, and it resolved a couple problems in Jim's mind that had no better resolutions in his view and mine.
Comments welcome.
Steve
Who's new
- koolguy66
- Sakkal
- David Adams
- rkimler
- AZTiger98
battles against lee shores
There has been some discussion of allowing SOLs to attack frigates in the coastal waters of a port if the winds are onshore. I started working on implementing this, but it raises an awful lot of issues and it's going to be too complex to try to do right now. Given that we've played NWOL-3, two other full NWOLs with less naval activity, and a couple of PATE tests, and the absence of this hasn't caused any real problems, I may just never add it. But if I do add it, it will be after the coming test game, and probably after NWOL-4 as well.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Quick Engage
I thought I understood the commands evade, accept, engage - position your ship during the turn leading to a position at the end of the turn - either in contact with the enemy or not. This will lead to combat (or not) at the start of the following turn.
Could you please illustrate assuming a Frigate in Port with 4 enemy Frigates patrolling the coastal waters of the Port in pursue mode. There should be no combat on this particular turn (I think) since the ships are not in the same location. Assume the "Quick Engage" option is selected by the ship in Port, and that the movement orders are to move to the Sea Area (presumably sailing past the blockaders).
What happens, during the current turn, and at the beginning of the following turn?
Also, what happens if a ship in the Sea Area is trying to enter harbor past a blockading fleet?
Is the battle on the current turn during the initial movement?
Thanks Steve
John Vanvark
clarifications
Frigate in harbor (not port: see earlier post for clarification on the terms), four enemy frigates patrolling the coastal waters. If the frigate in harbor wishes to sail to open sea, it must go through the coastal waters, obviously. Let's assume it does th is, and assume it selects Run Past as its combat option (which is the name I have given to what John is calling "Quick Engage").
If the enemy ships in the coastal waters have Engage as their combat option, there will be a battle. Assuming the four enemy frigates win (4 on 1, they should) then either the one frigate will get past them and make it the sea area, or it will not get past them and will return to the harbor (or it may be sunk or captured, of course). If the one frigate wins, the four enemy frigates (if not sunk or captured) will flee to the sea area. Either way, the ships are not in contact after the combat phase, and pursuit orders will not come into play.
If the enemy ships in the coastal waters have Accept (or Evade or Run Past) as their combat order, there will be no battle. The one frigate in port will be allowed out to the coastal waters without interference. When it sails to the sea area, the four enemy frigates will pursue it.
If the one frigate is at sea and enters the port with four enemy frigates in the coastal waters, then the lone frigate will be halted in the coastal waters and any battle will happen at the start of next turn. Combat only happens at the start of a naval turn, it can never happen mid-turn.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
a little combat thing
Consider a case of 10 French ships in Toulon harbor and 1 British ship (HMS Despondant) in Toulon harbor, also 5 French ships and 4 British ships in the coastal waters. Some of the French ships in the harbor would prefer to go out and fight in the coastal waters battle, where they might make the difference, than fight in harbor where they are not really needed. The rule that governs this situation is PATE 7.1, which reads in part:
> If a ship is in a battle from which it can depart to exit or enter the harbor before
> combat (for example, a frigate in a harbor is opposed only by an enemy TR which
> cannot block its departure from the harbor battle) it will delay its movement in
> order to fight if its combat order is Engage, and will move away from the battle
> (thus will not fight before moving) if its combat order is Accept or Evade (if its
> combat order is Accept, it may fight after moving if there are battles in both
> the harbor and the coastal waters).
Now we are adding a Run Through combat option. It seems to me that Run Through
makes no sense if a ship is not planning to move, so if the ship has Run Through it
should go out as it would if it had Accept, and should not stay in the harbor to fight
as it would if it had Engage.
The same logic applies if the 10 vs. 1 battle is in the coastal waters and the 5 vs. 4
battle is in the harbor; a ship in Run Through would leave the coastal waters, enter
the harbor, and fight there.
Let me know if this sounds wrong...
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Run Through
Are there two new orders "Quick Engage" and "Run Through"?
John Vanvark
new order
There is only one new combat option, which is called "Run Past" since that seemed a little more accurate to describe a situation in which the moving ships will not bring on a fight if they can avoid one.
The naval orders file is updated; that may be the easist place to look to understand exactly what the new order options are; but note that the Retreat Options command is not fully up to date, as it has a "retreat to coastal waters" option which I am not going to end up implementing. I will remove that shortly.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Similarly
A ship in Run Through will avoid bringing on battle if it can. So if a ship in harbor has Run Through orders and a blockading ship in coastal waters has Accept orders, there will be no battle and the ship in Run Through will get out unchallenged. The upshot (which I think is correct) is that a blockading fleet will have to have Engage orders turned on to prevent escapes.
In this sense (and as far as I've noticed, all others) Run Through is really a version of Accept, except that, if a battle occurs because someone else engages you, it leads to shorter battles in which the running-through ship is trying to get past, not to win.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Run through exists now
Run through reduces your combat strength by 2/3, your damage by 1/3. This means you have less rigging damage and it's easier to get out. I probably need to modify the capture chance formula to increase the odds that ships in Run Through get away, and the location formula to increase the chance that they end up where they want.
I'm going back into experiment mode to see how it works - basically, running a lot of battles with the ships in Accept in one set of trials and in Run Through in the other set. More news as it develops.
Most of the rest of the naval changes are fairly small. We're getting close to the next naval test game.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
update
I did indeed have to have Run Past combat mode affect both capture chances (they reduce capture chance by 2/3) and chance of ending up where you want to go (increases it by 30%).
After one round of tweaks, test results show as follows.
The test is 105 battles of one French ship in harbor going out to fight one British ship in the coastal waters. Wind conditions vary; sometimes the French ship has windward gauge, sometimes not. The British ships average somewhat higher quality than the French ships do, so the British win a little more often than would be the case with equal-quality ships.
First a baseline: the French are going out to fight. Both sides Engage, both aim at rigging, battle at close quarters. (Both aiming at rigging means we're looking to capture.) In this case, the French win about 48% of the time. If they don't win, they're captured about 23% of the time and go back to harbor the remaining 29%. (I never saw a sinking, and that concerns me somewhat, but that's a separate problem.)
By comparison, if everyone aims hull, then the French win about 45% of the time (the difference between 45% and 48% is just random fluctuation), get sunk 16% of the time and captured 17%, and go back to harbor to remaining 23% of the time.
The treatment: The French are going out to escape, giving Run Past combat orders and trying to flee to sea. In this case, the French win only 4% of the time. 67% of the time they make it past and get to sea. 13% of the time they get taken, and the other 16% they are forced back into harbor.
It strikes me that the capture chance is probably a little too high. This means if I put 100 frigates to sea, I'll lose 13 of them in exchange for getting 67 out to sea. (I'll lose another 8 or 9 when they come back in.) In my 4 victories I'll probably take one British prize in compensation. Seems like I'm losing a bit too many to make it worth it. The ratio of getting to sea vs. coming back to harbor seems reasonable to me, if anything a few more could go back into harbor. (You can always try again the next time the winds are good.)
The next tweak will be to have Run Past reduce the capture chance by 75% rather than by 67%.
By comparison, if the French come out in Run Past, but do not retreat to sea, then the capture chance changes very little (rises 3%; in the tests the number of captures actually went up by 1) but you always end up in harbor.
At the moment, if you come from harbor and lose you always can go back to harbor, and conversely, if you come in from the sea and lose you can always go back to sea. The latter seems reasonable; the former does not. It seems to me that if you are in harbor, come out to fight, and lose, it should sometimes be the case that you cannot get back to the harbor, but have to put to sea. I'll add that too.
Next set of tests will involve a fleet putting to sea, 10 coming out, either 6 defenders or 12 (I can run it both ways).
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Next test result
This test involves two sets of comparisons. In one case, there are 10 French ships engaging 6 British ships; a battle favorable to them. In the other case, 10 French ships engage 12 ships, 6 British and 6 Dutch; this battle is odds-against for the French.
In both cases, the test is Engage and retreat anywhere vs. Run Past and retreat to sea. Other factors are held constant; aiming at rigging, close quarters battle.
First the 10 vs. 12 battle. This is a bad battle for the French and in this case running past should probably be an attractive alternative.
Results. If they engage, the French win 30% of the time, taking about 5 prizes when they win, very few ships sinking. They lose the other 70% of the time, losing about 5 prizes, losing one sunk every other battle, occasionally sinking a British ship, and ending up back in harbor all the time.
If they run through to sea instead, they always lose. They lose about 2 ships captured on the way out, one is sunk about a quarter of the time, once in a blue moon they sink a British ship, they get about 6 ships to sea and the other 2 back to harbor.
This seems like a bad thing to do either way, but if you have to get some ships out and are willing to take some losses, running to sea does seem reasonable.
Second, the 10 on 6 battle. This is a battle you should want to fight and so running past should be a relatively poor choice.
Results: If you engage, you win about 70% of the time. When you win, you take 3 or 4 prizes on average, sink one about half the time, and rarely (but not never) lose one of your own sunk. When you lose, you lose 3 or 4 prizes, one sunk, 5 or 6 get back to harbor, you rarely sink an enemy ship in defeat.
If you run through instead, you still win about 5% or 10% of the time, and score 2-3 prizes if you do. Nothing ever sinks. If you don't win, you lose 2 ships captured, sometimes one ship on either side sinks but usually not, and you get about 6 or 7 to sea and 1 or 2 back to harbor.
So running through works OK, but you'd generally be better off risking the fight.
One thing that looks odd to me is that the number of ships captured when you run past (and lose) seems to be about the same whether you are 10 on 6 or 10 on 12. I think you should lose more in the 10 on 12 case. Looks like the capture chance should depend a bit on relative numbers, and that dependence should be increased in the run-past case. I can do that.
It is interesting that in all battles, some ships get through and some don't. Perhaps if the battle is fought at range there should be one roll for the fleet; either it all goes back to harbor or it all gets to see. If the battle is fought at close quarters, then it becomes ship by ship. That might or might not be worth the hassle, but I'll see if it can be done.
This concludes testing. Any comments or suggestions?
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Next test result
"One thing that looks odd to me is that the number of ships captured when you run past (and lose) seems to be about the same whether you are 10 on 6 or 10 on 12. I think you should lose more in the 10 on 12 case."
Agreed. And the test results look pretty good. Did you run these with 67% or 75% "reduce the capture chance" on the Run Through?
John Vanvark
capture chance
I am pretty sure I ran those with the 75% reduction. It doesn't make a whole lot of difference.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Naval Changes
So far, most of the changes that you have proposed make sense, given the British experience in NWOL3. I look forward to a test under combat conditions. Thank you for all the work you've been putting into refining the system so far!
Naval Changes
Steve
I agree with the Admiral. Nice work.
John Vanvark
Changes
I always thought that with 5 rigging damage a vessel would not be able to sail. Was this incorrect?
Don C.
yep, it's incorrect
Chances of moving get real, real low, but you can still sail. The odds are something close to 90%, in these particular cases, that you get captured when you have that much rigging damage. However, for the purposes of testing running fleets, I have at times turned off capturing (since I learn nothing for the test if a ship is captured). At least one of the runs I've posted were done with the capture chance turned off, though I believe for the big run I posted, I turned it back on.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
First cut
I have added the retreat option, not yet the Run past combat option. So the situation here is: One French SL in Toulon sails out to engage four British SLs in the coastal waters, and it has orders to retreat to the open sea if it loses. Here's what the battle looks like from the French perspective. (Ship names are randomly generated, BTW). Anyone see any problems? Let me know if so.
Steve
PATE Turn Report for Napoleon Bonaparte
Winter 1800: Campaign Turn 15
Orders Phase
Combat Phase
Wuopel (FR1SL) sails out of Toulon harbor.
Naval battle off the coast of Toulon
French side: Wuopel (FR1SL)
British side: Jegneq (BR4SL), Nocuepiao (BR1SL), Caocoi (BR2SL), Mekjenwoh (BR3SL)
French ships have ships farthest to windward.
French ships fight from windward.
All French ships are attempting to fight at range.
All British ships are attempting to fight at range.
Battle Positions:
French ships at range: FR1SL
British ships at range: BR4SL, BR1SL, BR2SL, BR3SL
After evasion, French ships fight from windward.
0% of French ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
0% of British ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
Total strength is 115 French and 400 British.
Giving 3 experience points to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Jegneq (BR4SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Nocuepiao (BR1SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Caocoi (BR2SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Mekjenwoh (BR3SL) for a total of 3
British side wins.
Wuopel (FR1SL) takes 0 hull damage and 5 rigging damage.
Wuopel (FR1SL) loses 84 crew members and Marines.
Wuopel (FR1SL) escapes from battle.
Wuopel (FR1SL) successfully runs enemy fleet.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) takes 1 hull damage and 0 rigging damage.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) loses 11 crew members and Marines.
Giving 1 experience point to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 4
Moving ships arrive in Gulf of Lyon (T=0)
Ships sailing in Toulon coast:
Wuopel (FR1SL) moves from Toulon coast to Gulf of Lyon, tacloc 0, windward 0
Arriving ships detect no other ships.
Crew losses: 84 French and 11 British
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Second cut
This is four French SLs outside Toulon, trying to run in past six British SLs, all four are trying to make the harbor. Conditional on not being sunk or taken, they're being given about a 50/50 chance to get in; it depends on quality.
PATE Turn Report for Napoleon Bonaparte
Winter 1800: Campaign Turn 15
Orders Phase
Combat Phase
Naval battle off the coast of Toulon
French side: Cunnuw (FR4SL), Wuopel (FR1SL), Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL), Pabpub (FR3SL)
British side: Guadah (BR6SL), Nocuepiao (BR1SL), Caocoi (BR2SL), Mekjenwoh (BR3SL), Jegneq (BR4SL), Caiiewrig (BR5SL)
French ships fight from windward.
All French ships are attempting to fight at range.
All British ships are attempting to fight at range.
Battle Positions:
French ships at range: FR4SL, FR1SL, FR2SL, FR3SL
British ships at range: BR6SL, BR1SL, BR2SL, BR3SL, BR4SL, BR5SL
After evasion, French ships fight from windward.
0% of French ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
0% of British ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
Total strength is 431 French and 660 British.
Giving 5 experience points to Cunnuw (FR4SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Guadah (BR6SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Nocuepiao (BR1SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Caocoi (BR2SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Mekjenwoh (BR3SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Jegneq (BR4SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Caiiewrig (BR5SL) for a total of 5
Giving 5 experience points to Pabpub (FR3SL) for a total of 5
British side wins.
Cunnuw (FR4SL) takes 3 hull damage and 0 rigging damage.
Cunnuw (FR4SL) loses 64 crew members and Marines.
Cunnuw (FR4SL) escapes from battle.
Cunnuw (FR4SL) successfully runs enemy fleet.
Guadah (BR6SL) loses 8 crew members and Marines.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) takes 2 hull damage and 0 rigging damage.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) loses 15 crew members and Marines.
Caocoi (BR2SL) takes 1 hull damage and 3 rigging damage.
Caocoi (BR2SL) loses 11 crew members and Marines.
Mekjenwoh (BR3SL) takes 0 hull damage and 5 rigging damage.
Mekjenwoh (BR3SL) loses 6 crew members and Marines.
Jegneq (BR4SL) loses 15 crew members and Marines.
Wuopel (FR1SL) takes 0 hull damage and 3 rigging damage.
Wuopel (FR1SL) loses 66 crew members and Marines.
Wuopel (FR1SL) escapes from battle.
Wuopel (FR1SL) is unable to run enemy fleet.
Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL) loses 48 crew members and Marines.
Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL) escapes from battle.
Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL) successfully runs enemy fleet.
Caiiewrig (BR5SL) takes 4 hull damage and 3 rigging damage.
Caiiewrig (BR5SL) loses 11 crew members and Marines.
Pabpub (FR3SL) takes 0 hull damage and 3 rigging damage.
Pabpub (FR3SL) loses 57 crew members and Marines.
Pabpub (FR3SL) is taken as a prize by Jegneq (BR4SL).
Giving 1 experience point to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 6
Moving ships arrive in Gulf of Lyon (T=0)
Ships sailing in Toulon coast:
Wuopel (FR1SL) moves from Toulon coast to Gulf of Lyon, tacloc 0, windward 0
Arriving ships detect no other ships.
Cunnuw (FR4SL) sails to harbor.
Fugfihwovhum (FR2SL) sails to harbor.
Crew losses: 792 French and 66 British
British naval victory in Toulon
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
First cut
I have added the retreat option, not yet the Run past combat option. So the situation here is: One French SL in Toulon sails out to engage four British SLs in the coastal waters, and it has orders to retreat to the open sea if it loses. Here's what the battle looks like from the French perspective. (Ship names are randomly generated, BTW). Anyone see any problems? Let me know if so.
Steve
PATE Turn Report for Napoleon Bonaparte
Winter 1800: Campaign Turn 15
Orders Phase
Combat Phase
Wuopel (FR1SL) sails out of Toulon harbor.
Naval battle off the coast of Toulon
French side: Wuopel (FR1SL)
British side: Jegneq (BR4SL), Nocuepiao (BR1SL), Caocoi (BR2SL), Mekjenwoh (BR3SL)
French ships have ships farthest to windward.
French ships fight from windward.
All French ships are attempting to fight at range.
All British ships are attempting to fight at range.
Battle Positions:
French ships at range: FR1SL
British ships at range: BR4SL, BR1SL, BR2SL, BR3SL
After evasion, French ships fight from windward.
0% of French ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
0% of British ship fire is directed at enemy hulls.
Total strength is 115 French and 400 British.
Giving 3 experience points to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Jegneq (BR4SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Nocuepiao (BR1SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Caocoi (BR2SL) for a total of 3
Giving 3 experience points to Mekjenwoh (BR3SL) for a total of 3
British side wins.
Wuopel (FR1SL) takes 0 hull damage and 5 rigging damage.
Wuopel (FR1SL) loses 84 crew members and Marines.
Wuopel (FR1SL) escapes from battle.
Wuopel (FR1SL) successfully runs enemy fleet.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) takes 1 hull damage and 0 rigging damage.
Nocuepiao (BR1SL) loses 11 crew members and Marines.
Giving 1 experience point to Wuopel (FR1SL) for a total of 4
Moving ships arrive in Gulf of Lyon (T=0)
Ships sailing in Toulon coast:
Wuopel (FR1SL) moves from Toulon coast to Gulf of Lyon, tacloc 0, windward 0
Arriving ships detect no other ships.
Crew losses: 84 French and 11 British
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Unlikely escape?
Does the 5 rigging damage impact the FR1SL's chance of escaping? What is the mechanism for determining success?
rig damage and escape
There are several separate questions here. The first one is how much damage does a ship attempting to escape take. That depends on a whole host of factors that affect any naval battle. The second one is the chance that it will be captured (if it does not sink). That chance depends heavily on the rigging damage, to a lesser extent on hull damage and the rigging damage of the enemy fleet, whether you are trying to escape in a particular direction or will go anywhere, and a few other things. The third one is, if it is not captured, whether it gets through the enemy fleet or has to go back where it came from. At the moment that chance depends on its quality and the average quality of its own and the enemy fleet, but does not depend on damage. I have been wondering whether it should, and so far I am concluding it should not. Clearly rigging damage should affect whether you get away at all, and it does, but given that you get away, it is not so clear that rigging damage should affect which direction you escape in. Desiring to keep things simple for now, and given that there are other things which have better arguments for being taken into account (wind direction, to name the top one) I think I will leave damage out of the which-way-can-you-go roll. It has a very large effect on capture chances, and I think that will suffice.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
Changes
This one I like! It also makes good sense to have the chance of getting out of a blockaded port.
Don C.
Changes
A few weeks ago we had been talking that ships were frequently able to put to sea on a strong offshore wind or a storm. The offshore wind, storm, tended to push the blockaders off station and this allowed ships in port to leave.
The trouble is that ships may be off station for several days; but 1 NWOL turn is about 1 week. Thus the storm or heavy offshore breeze can come and go before NWOL weather reports indicate the situation.
Thus how does this change affect what had been said relative to storms? Would it be necessary to have a box that says to put to sea in event of a storm? Would this be in conjunction with what one had to check about accepting combat if leaving port via quick combat? Would a storm drastically reduce the probability of encountering the blockade?
In returning to port... one has to return sometime.... it would seem that a storm would not help as the wind that pushes blockaders offshore will inhibit a vessel from returning to the same port.
As to visibility of other ships mentioned in the evade topic. Under good atmospheric conditions it is reasonable to see another ship some 20 nautical miles distant, about 23 land miles. One should see the sails of another ship before he see's yours if you are towards the sun relative to him... IE to the east in morning and west in afternoon. That is because the sun 'reflects' off his more or less white sails and is back lighted and thus darker on your ship viz a viz to him. Your sails being somewhat darker than him in appearance would mean likely 10-15 minutes that one see's the other before the other see's him.
However, all this is based upon good atmospheric conditions. Frequently this is not the case. Where it is not the case is storms, fog, warm weather with higher humidity and other factors such as dust creating haze. Also even, today in many places of the world, such as Indonesia, farmers clear their land by burning the fields. This creates dense smoke also creating haze. Today, such smoke can reduce the visibility of the Malacca Straits to 2-5 nautical miles.
For us, This can affect visibility in the Caribbean and Mediterranean. Haze from natural weather conditions, storms, smoke, dust, sand etc. can routinely limit visibility to less than 12 nautical miles. This is true today and more so back then.
Robert
storms
Actually, to my surprise, sometimes a fleet blown off blockade duty would not return for three or four weeks. I suspect that was rare but I've run across cases of it. No explanation given.
Nonetheless, since as Robert points out, in NWOL everything happens in (roughly) one-week chunks, when ships are blown out to sea by a storm, they'll remain out to sea that long.
In terms of turns, ships that are blown out to sea will remain out to sea for the rest of that turn. At the beginning of the next turn, the port will be open. The ships in the harbor will be able to get out before the blockading fleet can return and will be able to sail to coastal waters before the blockading fleet can engage them. The blockading fleet might or might not be able to pursue them depending on the random sequence of moves - whether the blockading fleet can get back to the coastal waters before the escaping fleet in the coastal waters gets out to the sea area. There is also the chance that the escaping fleet, if it moves first, will move to the location of the blockading fleet, but in general that chance is fairly low.
This all depends on being ready to sail immediately. Ships that are mothballed, which require four turns to activate, will not get out. There will not be time to raise TRs. However, if the escaping side has a TR in the harbor and units in the port city, there will be time to load those units, under the new rule that TRs in harbor can load and sail on the same turn. Keeping a large number of TRs around in hopes that a storm will blow up is prohibitively expensive, but keeping one smallish TR on hand with a one-brigade raiding force will be feasible.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS