storms
Here's the relevant information on storms. This is kinda me thinking aloud, but comments are welcome.
The chance of storms in a given sea area is equal to 1%, 3%, or 5% depending on whether winds are light, medium, or heavy. The chance is 30/40/30 so on average the chance is 3%.
If there are storms in a sea area, then there's a 30% chance of each port being hit, and a 30% chance of a tac loc in that sea area being hit. If a tac loc is hit, all ships in that tac loc are hit; if a port is hit, all ships in the coastal waters are hit, but the ships in harbor are fine.
This means a ship, either at sea or in a port, has a chance to be hit of 0.3%, 0.9%, or 1.5% depending on wind speed. Average of 0.9%. This means that the duration between storms for each ship will be 1/0.009 = 111 turns, which is 111/15 = about 7.5 seasons or a bit under two "years".
Side note: this is way too rare.
If a ship in a sea area is hit, then it takes 0-3 rigging damage, usually 1 or 2 (the distribution is not even). It has a chance to founder which is 5% to 25% depending on hull damage 0 to 4. It has a 30% chance to blow to a new tac loc, and a 5% chance to blow to the downwind sea area. If the latter happens and there is land downwind, then there is a 20% chance of going onto the rocks and sinking. All rolls are taken ship by ship.
If a ship in a port is hit, then it takes 0-5 rigging damage, usually 2 or 3 (also not an even distribution). It has a chance to founder which is 5% to 25% depending on hull damage 0 to 4. It has a chance to blow out of the coastal waters, which is 36% to 48% depending on quality, plus 5% for each point of rigging damage. This roll is made for all ships, so in most cases either all will blow out or all won't - if there is a division, it will be lower-quality and/or more damaged ships that blow out. If it blows out and the winds are onshore, then each ship has a 20% chance to go on the rocks, otherwise it doesn't move. If the winds are not onshore, then all ships go to the sea area.
With that, let's consider a British fleet blockading Brest.
There is a 0.9% chance, on average, that they have storms, which means once every 111 turns or once every 7.5 campaigns (roughly). Winds in Brest are onshore 70% of the time; when winds are onshore, they will lose 20% sunk on the rocks but will not be blown off station. In the other 30% of cases, they have a 36% chance of being blown out to sea entirely (assuming they have at least one ship of quality Excellent and no rigging damage) and then the port will be open. (Most ports have a higher chance of offshore winds than Brest does, FWIW.)
So their chance of being blown out is 0.9% for storms, times 30% for offshore winds, times 36% to be blown out, is 0.0972%. This means it'll happen once every 1029 turns, or once every 68.5 campaigns, or about once every 17 years.
The reality is that it probably happened more like once every year or two. And since NWOL games don't usually last two years, for us it better happen once every season or two.
So the chance of being blown out has to increase a whole, whole lot. Like about 50-fold.
I will look at the code and see what may be done.
Steve
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Storms II
You might also consider time of year for storms also. I was thinking particuarly of the Caribbean at this time of year. With the hurricane season in full bore, maybe increase the odds in certain seasons.
Don C.
seasonal weather
I think that suggestion has been made once before, a long time ago. The main concern I have about it is that if weather depends on the seasons in PATE, then we ought to have seasonal differences in GITM as well, and then we'll be doing mud marches all winter (or all spring if we're further north) and I think we're better off not opening that can of worms. There is also the question of figuring out how the weather should vary in different places (the Atlantic, the Med, the Baltic, the Caribbean all have very different weather patterns and those patterns can vary within the seas as well) since the patterns have changed at least slightly since 1800. Finally, there is a little bit of a database issue, though that problem is quite solvable if the other two issues are addressed.
But mostly this is a question of whether seasons affect the game, or are just timekeeping the same way the years are, and I think it is probably best to draw the bright line that they are just timekeeping and don't affect the game in any way.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
seasonal weather II
Perhaps not for the upcoming game, but future ones a seasonal effect should be considered. I can think of few times when weather was a deciding factor in a military actions. If my memory serves both the French and British Navies avoided the Caribbean in late summer and early fall. I believe that is one of the reasons the French navy showed up at Yorktown to assist Washington. Spring and winter were also times when actions were curtailed. Russians winters were notoriously famous in there historic problems. It could be as simple a shortening supply lines and march distances during these seasons.
Don C.
storms proposal
Here's what I'm thinking of doing (actually will do, but can revise based on comments).
Raise the storm chance in sea areas to 8/12/20% for light/medium/heavy winds. This
means ships will average a little over one storm experience per campaign.
Raise the chance of hitting each tac and port to 70%.
Raise the chance of being blown out to sea/towards the rocks to 100% if a ship in
coastal waters is hit by storms. This will no longer depend on quality or rigging
damage. To compensate, I'll have the chance to hit the rocks (presently 20% for
all ships) depend on those things. Probably put experience on it too.
Now our fleet in Brest has a 9.24% chance to see a storm (once every 10.8 turns on
average), and a 30% chance to be blown to sea if it hits, so their chance of being
blown out is 9.24% times 30% equals 2.77%, it'll happen once every 36 turns or
on average once in 2.5 seasons.
At Toulon, where winds are offshore 60% of the time, it'd be twice that often; once
per 18 turns or on average once every season and a quarter.
This means ships at sea or in coastal waters will take rigging damage (almost) once
every 11 turns (though they can repair it themselves).
Assuming they have no hull damage, they will founder in 5% of those storms, which
means about once every 220 turns = 14.67 seasons = 3.67 years. This seems too
high. I will cut that chance down to 1% for no hull damage, but have it go 11%. 21%.
31%, 41% if you have 4 hull damage, so that if you have a ship with hull damage at
sea, you have a pretty strong incentive to get it repaired (at port) before the next
storm shows up.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
On the rocks
The chance for a ship in Brest to go on the rocks is, after the proposed mods: 9.24% chance to see a storm, times 70% that winds are onshore, times 20% to go on the rocks, equals 1.3%. This means if you keep 20 ships off Brest, and you keep them there for 4 seasons = 60 turns, on average you will lose 15 of them on the rocks. This seems a bit high; it should be something like half that. At Toulon, with only 40% winds onshore, it would be 0.74% per ship per turn, losing 9 of them. I'll cut that down to more like 5 and 3 by lowering the rocks chance to something like 7%.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS
last note
Chance of going on the rocks is now 4% minus 0.5% per quality point plus 4% per point of rigging damage. Ships with quality 4 to 6 (Average to Very Good) with 1 or 2 points of rigging damage (from the storm) have a chance between 6% and 12% to go on the rocks.
Steve
I am a wizard. I make things using magic. SJS